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Abstract This study examines how fault dip and sediment strength influence along-strike variability in patterns of ground surface deformation during thrust and reverse fault earthquakes. Expanding on the 2D distinct element method (DEM) analysis by Chiama et al. (2023) and Chiama, Bednarz, et al. (2025), we develop 3D DEM models to investigate the influence of along-strike variability of geological site parameters on resultant morphologies of coseismic ruptures. The main fault scarp types—monoclinal, pressure ridge, and simple—are successfully reproduced in these 3D models, aligning with surface rupture characteristics previously identified in 2D modeling. Uniform fault dips and homogeneous sediment properties produce symmetrical (or cylindrical) fault scarps with uniform scarp morphologies, whereas local variations in fault dip, sediment strengths, and sediment thickness above the fault tip form a range of scarp geometries, deformation zone widths, and patterns of secondary fracturing. These 3D DEM models reproduce patterns of surface fault ruptures observed in natural settings. Overall, the 3D models support the relationships of ground surface deformation characteristics (scarp class, width, and height) with source and sediment properties established in the 2D DEM results of Chiama, Bednarz, et al. (2025). In addition, they provide new insights into how fault dip and sediment strength govern along-strike transitions in fault scarp morphology. In combination, the results of the 2D and 3D DEM model results can be used to infer patterns of surface ruptures based on local geological site conditions and fault characteristics. 

These 3D DEM models of thrust and reverse fault ruptures explore the influence of a variable fault dip (20º to 70º in 1º increments along-strike) in homogeneous (weak, moderate, strong) sediment as well as heterogeneous sediment (cohesive top unit, randomized sediment strengths). 

These 3D DEM models of thrust and reverse fault ruptures explore the influence of a planar fault (20º, 40º, and 60º) in homogeneous (weak, moderate, strong) sediment as well as heterogeneous sediment (cohesive top unit, randomized sediment strengths). 

These 3D DEM models of thrust and reverse fault ruptures explore the influence of variable fault gouge present along-strike above a planar fault (20º, 40º, and 60º) in homogeneous (weak, moderate, strong) sediment as well as heterogeneous sediment (cohesive top unit, randomized sediment strengths). 

We investigate the influence of earthquake source characteristics and geological site parameters on fault scarp morphologies for thrust and reverse fault earthquakes using geomechanical models. A total of 3434 distinct element method (DEM) model experiments were performed to evaluate the impact of the sediment depth, density, homogeneous and heterogeneous sediment strengths, fault dip, and the thickness of unruptured sediment above the fault tip on the resultant coseismic ground surface deformation for a thrust or reverse fault earthquake. A machine learning model based on computer vision (CV) was applied to obtain measurements of ground surface deformation characteristics (scarp height, uplift, deformation zone width, and scarp dip) from a total of 346,834 DEM model stages taken every 0.05 m of slip. The DEM dataset exhibits a broad range of scarp behaviors, generating monoclinal, pressure ridge, and simple scarps—each of which can be modified by hanging wall collapse. The parameters that had the most influence on surface rupture patterns are fault displacement, fault dip, sediment depth, and sediment strength. The DEM results comprehensively describe the range of historic surface rupture observations in the Fault Displacement Hazards Initiative (FDHI) dataset with improved relationships obtained by incorporating additional information about the earthquake size, fault geometry, and surface deformation style. We suggest that this DEM dataset can be used to supplement field data and help forecast patterns of ground surface deformation in future earthquakes given specific anticipated source and site characteristics. 

Given the importance of climate in shaping species’ geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data—such that individuals at the cool edge of a species’ distribution should benefit from warming (the “leading edge”), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the “trailing edge”). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species’ distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming—the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species’ distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species’ distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances. 

Each DEM experiment is sorted into directories by model parameters: D, M, L = Dense, Medium, and Loose sediment; 3, 5, and 10 m sediment depths; cohesion and tensile strength in Pa; fault dip in degrees; FS = fault seed height as a product of the total sediment depth. 

Each DEM experiment is sorted into directories by model parameters: D, M, L = Dense, Medium, and Loose sediment; 3, 5, and 10 m sediment depths; cohesion and tensile strength in Pa; fault dip in degrees; FS = fault seed height as a product of the total sediment depth. 

ABSTRACT We seek to improve our understanding of the physical processes that control the style, distribution, and intensity of ground surface ruptures on thrust and reverse faults during large earthquakes. Our study combines insights from coseismic ground surface ruptures in historic earthquakes and patterns of deformation in analog sandbox fault experiments to inform the development of a suite of geomechanical models based on the distinct element method (DEM). We explore how model parameters related to fault geometry and sediment properties control ground deformation characteristics such as scarp height, width, dip, and patterns of secondary folding and fracturing. DEM is well suited to this investigation because it can effectively model the geologic processes of faulting at depth in cohesive rocks, as well as the granular mechanics of soil and sediment deformation in the shallow subsurface. Our results show that localized fault scarps are most prominent in cases with strong sediment on steeply dipping faults, whereas broader deformation is prominent in weaker sediment on shallowly dipping faults. Based on insights from 45 experiments, the key parameters that influence scarp morphology include the amount of accumulated slip on a fault, the fault dip, and the sediment strength. We propose a fault scarp classification system that describes the general patterns of surface deformation observed in natural settings and reproduced in our models, including monoclinal, pressure ridge, and simple scarps. Each fault scarp type is often modified by hanging-wall collapse. These results can help to guide both deterministic and probabilistic assessment in fault displacement hazard analysis. 

Abstract. We investigate the interaction of fluvial and non-fluvial sedimentation on the channel morphology and kinematics of an experimental river delta. We compare two deltas: one that evolved with a proxy for non-fluvial (“marsh”) sedimentation (treatment experiment) and one that evolved without the proxy (control). We show that the addition of the non-fluvial sediment proxy alters the delta's channel morphology and kinematics. Notably, the flow outside the channels is significantly reduced in the treatment experiment, and the channels are deeper (as a function of radial distance from the source) and longer. We also find that both the control and treatment channels narrow as they approach the shoreline, though the narrowing is more pronounced in the control compared to the treatment. Interestingly, the channel beds in the treatment experiment often exist below sea level in the terrestrial portion of the delta top, creating a ∼ 0.7 m reach of steady, non-uniform backwater flow. However, in the control experiment, the channel beds generally exist at or above relative sea level, creating channel movement resembling morphodynamic backwater kinematics and topographic flow expansions. Differences between channel and far-field aggradation produce a longer channel in-filling timescale for the treatment compared to the control, suggesting that the channel avulsions triggered by a peak in channel sedimentation occur less frequently in the treatment experiment. Despite this difference, the basin-wide timescale of lateral channel mobility remains similar. Ultimately, non-fluvial sedimentation on the delta top plays a key role in the channel morphology and kinematics of an experimental river delta, producing channels which are more analogous to channels in global river deltas and which cannot be produced solely by increasing cohesion in an experimental river delta.